Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 89812.987411 94731.925928 99647.905446 104926.198169 110429.664713 115995.287382 122045.747556
2025-06-29 81139.592911 88624.789992 96313.562659 104791.376204 113866.379206 123278.758801 133768.440879
2025-07-06 74970.540831 84193.512923 93875.133029 104774.613727 116681.726099 129272.818929 143571.824876
2025-07-13 71363.877255 82009.109814 93385.412569 106412.273715 120880.034052 136418.628871 154331.961519
2025-07-20 68337.450354 80132.134128 92935.254204 107813.515580 124573.595673 142815.008505 164114.149377
2025-07-27 65429.186027 78143.840055 92142.420144 108627.194319 127434.321231 148147.177439 172606.495220
2025-08-03 62470.387953 75901.478323 90885.140573 108748.035146 129367.052877 152322.537232 179710.198129
2025-08-10 59998.948014 74072.378273 89965.899369 109129.460524 131488.417130 156628.282383 186903.666422
2025-08-17 57602.885223 72204.391747 88886.971595 109218.462246 133180.525182 160373.232115 193407.186567
2025-08-24 56057.104358 71257.414546 88810.275580 110412.602284 136106.913989 165510.570979 201511.970154
2025-08-31 53918.137504 69502.664417 87691.151288 110293.624855 137421.728661 168722.555622 207342.493695
2025-09-07 52792.353721 68919.794344 87923.534065 111746.179909 140571.777226 174076.715348 215700.268063
2025-09-14 51372.262595 67940.293373 87655.207248 112589.313782 143008.354540 178628.322038 223184.774885
2025-09-21 49664.352131 66542.964338 86825.627585 112705.873025 144538.042385 182087.590080 229378.105215
2025-09-28 48026.436734 65172.517196 85974.626456 112746.620073 145936.506060 185365.608085 235348.411837
2025-10-05 47322.820679 64952.061078 86523.500208 114498.138856 149421.967836 191170.651838 244398.516860
2025-10-12 46543.650065 64600.033101 86879.511315 115988.318353 152575.827547 196578.908182 252993.497012
2025-10-19 45522.304458 63896.350071 86758.746042 116852.484569 154935.109270 201012.816971 260413.416654
2025-10-26 44223.860013 62787.779405 86084.029277 116980.871213 156347.885654 204268.787647 266387.701458
2025-11-02 43114.261199 61891.169232 85648.611278 117385.647732 158088.118734 207921.221486 272858.918369
2025-11-09 41925.458619 60851.894939 84995.122567 117480.095715 159412.296973 211044.442189 278675.631054
2025-11-16 41289.208576 60531.022442 85258.954885 118747.122115 162226.746369 216038.833026 286852.884247
2025-11-23 40106.286684 59435.388441 84474.423975 118620.890061 163232.554479 218748.158364 292165.632815